Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Will STI turn bull? I'm betting it would...

What a fantastic performance by the STI in the weeks leading to the Lunar New Year. Look at the chart below:

The STI is challenging its 200-EMA. If it successfully crosses, it will be very bullish for Singapore stocks in the days and weeks ahead. What about other indices? As has been mentioned in my 9 Jan post, the Dow, DAX and FTSE have already broken on the upside of the 200-EMA. Hang Seng is similar to STI, just about attempting to break past. The Shanghai Index, meanwhile, is the laggard, but I do expect better performances from it in the weeks ahead.

What does this imply? From a trader's point of view, definitely to be a buyer. Even if we are no longer buying, then at least do not sell shares yet, because better days are just right ahead.

So, from the technicals, things are improving . What about the fundamental perspective? Jonathan Wilmot, chief global strategist at Credit Suisse provides these reasons:

  1. Global industrial production is now significantly lower than global demand. In 2009, production surged shortly after economic growth rebounded.
  2. There is a significant divergence between the level of US corporate profits and trend real equity returns.
  3. Equities are cheap.
Hence, knowing that the bull is coming, I will be setting my selling price targets. In the meantime, be patient and just wait



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