Sunday, December 28, 2014

Will stocks crash in 2015?

Tan Teng Boo reckons there will be a big crash for the S & P in 2015. The reasons:
  • Valuations are rich. US stock market rally has been going on for 6 years.
  • The only time US equities have gone up so long without a 20% crash was between 1992 and 1999.
  • In the last 114 years, CAPE (Shiller PE) ratio has been above 26 times during only 3 occasions - in the market peaks of 2007, 1999 and 1929.
Tan is in 70% cash currently.

The last time Tan predicted a crash was in 2011, and we know by now, he was wrong. But I am still excited, because if a crash truly comes, I will be moping up stocks.

Some of Tan's recommendations in a market crash are AIA(HK), Treatt Plc(Europe), De'Longhi(Milan), IP Group(London), Church and Dwight and Estee Lauder (US).