Rotate back to technology stocks, gold, says DBS

DBS is advising investors to rotate back to pandemic-proof assets, particularly technology stocks and gold. The switch to a recovery play in anticipation of vaccine discoveries, it says, is showing signs of “fatigue”.

According to DBS, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index over US small caps had peaked on Aug 26 last year. The index had subsequently undergone a sharp relative underperformance as global portfolio allocators jumped onto the bandwagon of piling into domestic plays in anticipation of vaccine discovery.

“Covid-19 cases are rising while vaccination among developing countries remains slow. A delay in the return to normalcy for businesses will weigh on global growth,” say Hou and Cheang.

The momentum in positive macro data is also approaching a peak, according to the bank. At 64.7, the US ISM Manufacturing Index is looking “toppish”, it says. In fact, a retracement in the index has historically coincided with a moderation in the rally on S&P 500 Index, it adds.

Thirdly, the US Treasury (UST) bond yields are retracing despite strong macro data. This suggests rising caution on the economic growth assumptions in 2021, says DBS.

Adapted from 

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/investing-ideas/rotate-back-technology-stocks-gold-says-dbs (30 Apr 2021)

Time to Prepare for a Stock Market Correction

Let’s take a look back at the 2008 Global Financial Crisis bear market for a good example. 

When the bull market started in March 2009, the S&P 500 rallied +63% from the bottom through the end of the year – very close to the +68% rally following the Covid-19 bear. In 2010, which was the second year of that bull market, the S&P 500 endured an intra-year correction of -16%. 

The correction was scary at the time, but also healthy – the market finished up +13% in 2010. We have seen this very regularly throughout history, where the second year of a bull market is choppy but also finishes positive. I could see a similar outcome in 2021.

So, how should investors prepare for market volatility or a double-digit correction? Using history as a guide, it is time to mentally prepare for a correction now, so when it arrives, you expect it and can avoid making any knee-jerk, reactive decisions.

Adapted from Zacks "Mitch on The Markets" on 8 May 2021