Having attended Invest Fair 2013, it was dismal to hear a few speakers there predicting that this 5-year bull run will be coming to an end soon. However, a bull run averages around 5years, and this bull run started in March 2009, so I am more than prepared to face up to this fact.
So what are the signs of this market top? According to the diagram above (used by Kelvin Han, one of the speakers), we are now approaching the late expansion stage. Once oil price starts to hit new high (now at 106, predicted figure is 120), we should prepare for a crash of the Dow Jones to at least 13440. According to him, we have six more months left, and we should be concentrating on buying energy stocks during this period. However, he is only confident of US stocks, and not Singapore stocks.
After that, it would be a 1 - 1.5 year crash till mid-2015. This is when I will need to short the markets.
Personally, I tend to agree since this bull market is getting old and tired, and I think it needs to rest before charging again. So, this is my plan:
Now - end 2013: Pare down my holdings as much as possible (currently I am vested in Midas, Sunac, NOL and Wilmar). In fact, I do not want to wait till Dec to get out of my positions!
2014: Short the Dow Jones Index
Mid 2015: Buy stocks again (my fav candidate is Las Vegas Sands, I miss out on this during last crisis).
2017: Sell! as traditionally, 1987, 1997, 2007 have seen market tops.
Good plan. The truth is history tends to repeat itself. Anyone with a keen interest in managing their own funds, having done some research will come to the same conclusion. since 1990s there has been 5yr bull run then 2 yr bear.
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