Have stocks made a bottom?

Bullish case
Nikko's Asia chief investment officer Ng Soo Nam is positioning his regional equity fund for an upturn. This is because US economy will avoid a recession this year and continue to grow, albeit sluggishly. Also, European policymakers are likely to find a mid-term solution for the sovereign debt crisis. Once this happens, investor sentiment will improve, and battered Asian equities will rebound in a big way, and on the back of the region's robust economic growth and healthy corporate earnings. Three to five years from now, investors of Asian stocks will end up doing very well, he predicts. Who is Ng Soo Nam? He earned his reputation as one of Singapore's more talented fund managers after steering Schroeder Singapore Trust to become one of the best performing funds in th 1990s. He went on to cement his reputation following impressive stints with Mirae, and now Nikko.

Well-known American technical analyst Dan Wantrodski has turned decisively bullish. He noted the S&P500 forming a positive outside month on the monthly bar chart in Oct, and this indicated a significant reversal. A move above 1260 by end Oct would complete the formation (achieved on 27 Oct, but market has fallen back since). Such a break indicated a target of 1,370. Based on his research, the stock market is likely to do better for weeks, if not months.

Renowned local technician, Daryl Guppy also pointed to a plausible trend change in the Shanghai Stock Market. He outlined 3 reasons. The first was a close above the short-term downtrend line at 2380. The second is a move above 2452, which is the peak of the rebound betwen the valley lows that form a double bottom. The last is when the resistance of long-term GMMA turn support. This is likely taking place now.

Bearish case
PM Lee has warned that this financial crisis will be worse than 2008. Compared to the US financial crisis in 2008, this time, economies around the world are slowing at the same time. Then, Latin America and Asia were growing, so that helped the world economy. That is no longer the case.

Mark Hulbert, asserted that according to sentiment indicators, the rally we have seen in the past weeks is merely a bear market rally, not a new bull. This is because more scepticism is missing among investors and advisers.

Michael Lombardi also noted that in the long-term, the economy has severe structural problems. The Fed has kept the economy alive the past two to three years by aggressively increasing the money supply. This can’t go on forever.
At some point, the stock market will fall victim to higher interest rates brought about by rapid inflation and Phase III of the bear market will suddenly be upon us. For now, however, we are still in the throes of a bear market rally.

My own opinion
I view the S&P close above its 200 day EMA as a bullish sign. I believe in the days ahead, other stock indices will also move higher. However, I belong to the view that the Fed can't print money foever, and at some point, the stock market will fall victim to higher interest rates brought about by rapid inflation. Therefore, i am short-term bullish but long-term bearish on the stock market. Thus, I will be using the ongoing rise in the markets to get out of all my long positions. After that, I will be taking short positions in the markets.