I am acknowledging that clearly, a bear market has arrived.

I remember on July 18, I wrote the article "Like it or not, Singapore shares have entered bear market". But the ironic episode was that I didn't follow my own counsel, and continued to invest, hoping for a final QE3.

Now, the bear market is clearly here. How do I tell? In May 2010, the STI fell below 200-Day MA, but climbed back above it within days. In March 2011, the STI again fell below the 200 MA, but then again, climbed back quickly above it too. In June 2011, the STI fell below 200D MA, but this time round hardly sustained its climb above it. It fell below the 200D MA line again on 3 Aug 2011, and this time round, there is no turning back. I am accepting the STI is not going to recover above the 200D MA anyime soon. Therefore, my admission that a bear market has arrived.

How long then, do bear markets last? Bear markets tend to be short in duration. According to my own research on data since 1946, bear markets can be as short as 45 days to as long as 694 days. They seldom last more than two years. An average bear market lasts about 1 year. Therefore, based on this assumption, the 2011 market should then bottom out by middle next year. So until then, my policy is to short the rallies, and "it is not time yet to buy".