Wednesday, February 23, 2011

What can we buy?

Since I believe that the plunge in stock markets is temporary, and that markets will pick up later this year, I will like to do some pickings over the next few weeks as the market turmoil plays itself out.

According to OCBC:
- In the Oil & Gas space, KepCorp is a buy on current price weakness
- In the commodity space, Noble and Olam are down sharply, but fundamentally sound and ideal for longer term investors
- Telco stocks are attractive now for dividend yield of >5%
- Banks have also been sold down, but also ideal time to accumulate on price weakness
- Healthcare stocks, which were expensive, have come off and are value is emerging
- REITs have no exposure to MENA, and remain an overweight
- From a technical perspective, some STI stocks are now hovering near to their respective immediate support levels and may offer buying opportunities should a rebound take place near these levels. These are CapitaLand, CapitaMall Trust, CapitaMalls Asia, City Developments, SembMarine, SPH and SingTel

I currently have:
Olam (2 lots), Noble (2.5 lots) and SGX (1 lot). This is what OCBC has to say on Noble and Olam: While stock prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term, price weakness may present attractive entry levels for long term investors. Noble currently trades at 13.5x FY11 PER (vs. its historical range of 4x-23x between 2007 and 2010) and Olam is trading at 18.4x FY11 PER (vs. its historical range of 8x-49x between 2007 and 2010). While we do not rule out the possibility of further near term pullback, we believe that these stocks should also be sensitive to a rebound in sentiment when risk aversion subsides. For instance, Noble tumbled by 80% during the 2008 downturn but thereafter rebounded six-fold within a year, deeming it among the top STI performers.

Earlier, CLSA issued a "Conviction Sell" on Olam with a $1.60 target. Although I do not really understand the report, I do not think its prices will go that far down, at least not in the near future. I will therefore pursue a policy of "average down".
I will also be adding Noble to my portfolio as its prices become more attractive.

As for KepCorp and SembMar, their prices are still far too high. Not attractive enough.

I should be adding more STX OSV to my portfolio soon, too.

A look at insider trades revealed director/ institutional buying in F&N and share buy back in SembCorp in recent weeks. I am definitely standing by to push the "buy" button on these two.

Increasingly, the STI looks weaker by the day, and I will not be surprised if it enters a baby bear market soon. But I will be buying into the bear market.

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