Friday, September 10, 2010

Why I would not be following some investors on rushing to the exits

Current picture:
1. Investor sentiment is as bad as it was during the market's low in March 2009
2. Only 29% of stocks rated by the usually uber-bullish analysts have a buy rating
3. The stagnating economy, the persistently high jobless rate, taxes, war....


Why we should be buying stocks?
1. In 2010, S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 46%, the largest increase since at least 1988.
2. Next year, the S&P is expected to earn $94.31 per share, putting the P/E at a low 12 times expected earnings and below the 14% growth rate.
3. Since 1988, the S&P 500 has traded at an average historical P/E of 19.3. Today, it's at 15, implying a return to 1,417 if it simply trades back to its average P/E.

"Times are tough, but that's when you're supposed to buy stocks, before things turn around. Perhaps it truly is "different this time." But I'm not buying it. I'm buying stocks instead." - Mark Lichtenfeld

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