Brokerages have started downgrading shares, is a bottom near?

At least 1 brokerage have started downgrading shares in Singapore. These are the "new" target prices - 1)Yangzijiang:1.10 2)Sembcorp Marine:3+
3)Sembcorp Ind:2.90. Should I bail? No, when analysts say sell, it is time to buy.

Mistakes I have been making

I have made mistakes prior to this stock market crash. Otherwise, I would have taken more profit from the table, and thus have more to invest with now.

Mistakes I make include:

1. Investing in shares which are on the verge of overbought. (CNOOC @19.05, Sembcorp @5.09)

2. Needless cutting loss on shares. (Zhaojin)

3. Continuing to invest in counters which are loss making. (NOL)

There is therefore a need to:

1. Resist buying shares when they have moved out of oversold territory.

2. Refrain from cutting loss.

3. Need to do more due diligence in stock selection.

Tan Teng Boo now predicts stocks will fall 20%

Remember Tan Teng Boo? He confidently called for people to buy stocks way back during the market slump in 2008. Of course, he was right. Now, he is a bear. He is expecting more severe downside for global stocks in the coming few quarters. He says a severe downturn or recession in the US is on the cards. Also, Europe's debt crisis could get messier and inflationary pressure in emerging markets is unlikely to ease anytime soon.

As such, he expects the S&P to trade to a low of 900 over the next 12 to 15 months. He sees Hang Seng and Nikkei to trade to 15,000 and 8,000 respectively too. What will he buy when markets have fallen to those levels? He is eyeing London listed IP Group, DNA-sequencing company Illumina and Hong Kong listed REXlot.

I remember clearly Tan Teng Boo calling for a buy during those days. It pays to heed his advice now. I am keeping my powder dry. The next 12 to 15 months could be the most defining moment of my life.

NOL is the first blue chip in Singapore to fall to crisis low

NOL has become the first blue chip to fall to its crisis low of $1.02. It is interesting to see if others will follow soon. I am expecting to be so. Unfortunately, I have holdings in NOL at much higher prices, but will I be following the mad stampede out now? No way, but instead I am monitoring, and looking to average in. Preparing my bullets for the next Great Stock Sale.

Is QE3 coming?

BEIJING (MarketWatch) -- The world is likely to see a third round of quantitative easing in the U.S. soon, but the possibility of the U.S economy suffering a double dip isn't big, People's Bank of China adviser Li Daokui said Tuesday (9 Aug 2011).

Current market volatilities are purely caused by "blind actions" of U.S politicians, which lead to excess short-term fiscal austerity in the U.S., Li said on his personal microblog.

"The QE3 is to be launched soon, which is actually a second bailout, and the financial market will rise quickly," he said, adding that high-quality assets and currencies will benefit from such easing, though long-term Treasurys will fall.

"A double dip in the U.S economy is not likely, as asset prices will recover fast," he said.

Prices to look out for once bear market sets in

I am a short-term bull, but a long-term bear on the stock market now. Although I am still invested, I do not intend to hold out for very long. I will then wait for a better time to reenter the market. What prices can I expect? If I believe US will run into double dip recession, therefore a revisit to 2008 levels, then:


CapitaLand : 1.70
City Developments : 3.87
ComfortDelGro Corp : 0.97
DBS Group Holdings : 5.02
Fraser and Neave : 1.625
Genting S'pore : 0.40
Golden Agri-Resources : 0.149
Hongkong Land Holdings : 1.70
Jardine Cycle & Carriage : 6.44
Keppel Corp : 2.69
Neptune Orient Lines : 1.02
Noble Group : 0.30
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp: 3.51
Olam International : 0.91
SembCorp Industries : 1.27
SembCorp Marine : 0.79
SIA Engrg Co : 1.23
S'pore Press Holdings :1.93
S'pore Technologies Engrg : 1.62
S'pore Telecommunications : 1.755
S'pore Airlines : 7.21
S'pore Exchange : 3.69
StarHub : 1.76
United Overseas Bank : 7.37
Wilmar International : 1.76

While I certainly do not expect to see these prices soon, but nothing is for sure(esp. if we are truly entering the third phase of the bear market) it pays to be prepared, and to grab shares with both hands if prices fall again to such levels.

One more rally, then crash?

Increasingly, the general opinion among analysts is that the bull market has come to an end. It is in the charts.

"We believe we are seeing pretty clear signs that the 2009 to 2011 bull market is over and that the bear is just starting to get its claws into the market," writes Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist at Standard & Poor's, in commentary on Friday. "While we do think a bear market has started, we think we may see one more counter-trend rally, which could be very strong. Once this forecasted rally ends, we think the next leg of the bear market will show its teeth."

Expressing the same view, Jim Rogers commented "I'm expecting a rally when the air clears but I don't think it will last that long. There will be more problems, especially from European and US markets... Still, I happen to think this panic is overdone... people are throwing investments out the window and that's not how stocks, bonds or commodities work. Even if the world is coming to an end, it's not going to happen in a week. Normally, when you have panic in the markets, people don't tend to buy, even when it is usually the best thing to do. It's very hard to get over that psychological barrier but it usually pays off after a while.

Lessons to be drawn: Wait very patiently for the rally, which may take some time to develop, then wait further for peak rally prices, and SELL all my shares, allocate some funds for shorting, and more funds for LONGING at bargain prices when the bear is out in full force. Remember, GET OUT from all stocks once the counter-trend rally arrives and don't overstay the rally.