Geo Energy - Does insider buying equate with share price rise?

A peek at insider activity has revealed directors buying 200,000 shares in Geo Energy at prices ranging from 0.43 to 0.465 this month. Is this the time to buy?

This is the chart for Geo Energy. It is clearly on a downtrend. So, there is really no hurry to buy, unless stock starts moving upwards on higher volumes (wait for 9D to cross above 20D). But I personally believe it could be bottoming.

Fundamentals:

PE: 15.3
P/B: 3.11

Not mouth-watering.

Is Bund Center worth a look?

Bund Center has been on a tear of late. A check shows that the company has been buying back shares in late March at prices ranging from 0.198 - 0.23. Is something brewing?

Share volumes have definitely picked up since, and its share price have broken resistance at 0.24 and hit a high of 0.305 before retreating to 0.265 currently. Hoping correction will take price down to low 20s to make it attractive to enter.

Akan Datang - Stock Market Correction?

The May-June period is traditionally a lull period for stock markets, and the occurrences in the past few days, epitomised by Nikkei's 1000-point last Thursady, have given me "hope" that this may again be happening this year. This explains why other than Midas, I have not loaded up on stocks. Patience is a virtue if anyone wants to make a killing in the markets.

Going forward, if markets are going to retreat in the weeks ahead, there is little cause for panic. Instead, one should be buying.

Two well-respected fund managers, Tan Teng Boo (this is someone I respect too) and Kevin Lyne-Smith, provided reasons on why we should buy if markets correct.

Tan (The Edge, May 2013) points out that "global equities, propelled by US stocks will continue to rise because the worst is over for the five-year global financial crisis that started in 2008 and ended in 3Q2012. Other points he made include:

• US economy currently has a lot of cylinders to sustain its recovery
• S&P will reach 1,800 to 2,000 in the next 3-5 years
• It is a matter of time before the Asian indices like HK and S'pore catch up and  break their 2007 highs

Kevin (The Edge, May 2013) reiterated the case for stocks with reasons why the US recovery is sustainable. This is due to:

• US is back in growth mode
• US real estate has picked up
• There is broad-based improvement in employment
• Credit in US is easing
• PE ratios of stock indices around the world are still below their long-term averages

However, Kevin is currently not very enthusiastic on Asian stocks, as they are weighed down by concerns of slower growth in China, and hence, lacklustre demand for global commodities and natural resources.

He also advised on 2 impending events in the coming months that could cause a correction: Germany's elections and significant slowdown in China. Nonetheless, he is optimistic these scenarios will work themselves out eventually.

So, sit tight, and monitor closely for opportunities should markets correct in the weeks or months ahead.

Stock Watchlist

As correction nears with each new high that the STI makes (even as I am still vested in Midas), it may be good to have a watchlist to pounce on once markets tank again.

Maybank KE has this to say, on a report dated 16 May 2013:

1.
Yongnam Holdings: Positioning Ahead of Contract Wins; Buy TP $0.43
YNH SP | Mkt Cap USD334.9m | ADTV USD2.9m
Ø Reiterate BUY ahead of 2H13. Our TP of SGD0.43 is pegged to 10x
FY13F.
Ø 1Q13 results were largely within expectation. Revenue grew 22% yoy.
Profit was flat yoy, but this was in comparison to exceptional margins
in the same quarter last year.
Ø We expect margins to pick up on execution of strutting orderbook
which has higher margins and the commencement of new contract wins.
Management is gunning for several contracts in 2H13 which will
replenish orderbook substantially.
Current Price: 0.345

2.
Sino Grandness(1.425): Watch Out For The Next Step; Buy TP $1.60
SFGI SP | Mkt Cap USD337.1m | ADTV USD2.3m
Ø Maintain BUY and TP of SGD1.60. Sino Grandness’s 1QFY13 results were
within market expectation but we expect 2Q and 3Q results to be
stronger. BUY maintained.
Ø Garden Fresh continued to drive the growth with revenue up 50% yoy.
It seems RMB250m net profit target for Garden Fresh is on track.
Ø We maintain our BUY call and target price for the time being but
watch out for the further step towards the Garden Fresh IPO, which
could significantly re-rate the stock.

3.
Swiber Holdings(0.69): Strong Start to the Year; Buy TP $0.84
SWIB SP | Mkt Cap USD338.1m | ADTV USD1.1m
Ø Maintain BUY with TP of SGD0.84. A very strong set of 1Q13 results
following a record year in FY12, supports our upbeat view on Swiber.
Ø 1Q13 PATMI of USD20.1m was above expectations and make up 43% of our
previous FY13F forecast. Contract win is our main concern now given
that its last announced contract win was in Feb-13.
Ø Swiber is tendering for close to USD2b of contracts. Contract wins
plus execution is critical for Swiber in order to benefit from better
utilisation of its vessels. This would support a positive re-rating for
the stock and relieve balance sheet concerns.

4.
United Engineers(2.90): Hit by start-up expenses; Buy TP $4.05
UEM SP | Mkt Cap USD725.5m | ADTV USD0.9m
Ø Maintain BUY with TP of SGD4.05/share, 25% discount to RNAV.
Ø 1Q13 results were slightly below our expectations, but largely a
misnomer given UE’s ongoing plans to takeover WBL. With the recent WBL
saga between Straits Trading and UE drawing to a close, we think UE
will experience short term share price weakness via paying over 12%
higher than their original price for WBL
Ø 1Q was hit by higher staff and operating costs arising from the
commencement of UE Bizhub East and Park Avenue Changi. Revenue was at
SGD136.6m (17% YoY, -25% QoQ), and net profit at SGD7.4m (-24% YoY,
-82% QoQ).


5.
Midas Holdings(0.47): On The Way To Recovery; Buy TP $0.75
MIDAS SP | Mkt Cap USD464.3m | ADTV USD3.3m
Ø Maintain BUY and TP of SGD0.75. Midas reported a net loss of RMB5m
for 1QFY13. But our investment theme for Midas remains to be a bet on
improving order flow in 2013 and a turnaround in earnings in 2014.
Ø Management’s contract outlook implies further RMB500-600m order win
for the rest of the year on the top of current RMB650m order book. We
are also optimistic on the likelihood of potential high speed train
tender this year.
Ø We recommend the investors to be patient for the new order wins as
the current 1x PB provides a floor for the share price.