Sunday, September 30, 2012

Once-in-a-generation buying opportunity

Albert Edwards, global strategist of Societe Generale, says the US is headed for recession, and that a hard landing looms for China. This could lead to a more than 60% to 70% crash in the S& 500, and a more than 80% collapse in copper prices, all within the next 18 months.

Who is Albert Edwards? He is the economist who foresaw the Asian financial crisis in the 1990s. In fact, he warned clients back in 1995,1996. The crisis became full blown by 1997. He also foresaw the tech bubble in 2000. Now, he says, another crisis is looming. What are the reasons for this?

  1. US will be unable to avoid a major recession
  2. US stocks are now very expensive
  3. Spillover effects to the rest of the world
  4. Asian and Europe equities will get cheaper
  5. Most people are way too complacent that policies will work in China
Conclusion
The world might now be in similar situation to early 2008.

Implication
Deadline for crash is March 2014. Between now and then, short the markets. Then wait for the once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy very cheap equities. Start to deploy cash as the index is on the way down to 400-500. More importantly, have a lot of cash on stand-by.

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