I realise I should actually try to diversify - so I have got rid of some GLP for
Yangzijiang. Yes, it is time to welcome back Yangzijiang.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
I am initiating a position with GLP
The first I have added since the start of the bear market in Aug - GLP @ 1.53.
It is now trading off its historical low, but has nice fundamentals, and its NAV is already 1.70, so good time to buy some for keeps.
My wounded portfolio now consists:
CNOOC: -33%
NOL: -40%
SembCorp:-30%
GLP: NA
It is now trading off its historical low, but has nice fundamentals, and its NAV is already 1.70, so good time to buy some for keeps.
My wounded portfolio now consists:
CNOOC: -33%
NOL: -40%
SembCorp:-30%
GLP: NA
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
I am thinking of my dream portfolio
I am dreaming of building a portfolio of stocks, and thing is, it is getting very possible as STI just crashed through 2600. Stocks are approaching very attractive levels.
My portfolio should ideally include:
Banks: Any of the Big 3
Property: Global Log
Commodity:Noble
Shipping:Yangzijiang
Offshore: Keppel Corp
Gaming: Genting
*Telco: Singtel (spare funds only)
There is no better time to think about starting a portfolio of stocks than now. I am watching closely.
My portfolio should ideally include:
Banks: Any of the Big 3
Property: Global Log
Commodity:Noble
Shipping:Yangzijiang
Offshore: Keppel Corp
Gaming: Genting
*Telco: Singtel (spare funds only)
There is no better time to think about starting a portfolio of stocks than now. I am watching closely.
Monday, October 3, 2011
A crisis in my performance
I added Semb Corp to my portfolio in late Jul. I also added CNOOC in Aug. Now, combined with my existing NOL, Semb Corp and CNOOC have driven my protfolio far below my wildest imagination. I am very negative for 2010. This is my first crisis ever since my steady perfomance from second half 2010. How did I let it happen?
1. I did not pay attention to the technicals
2. I over-indulged in bullish analyst reports
3. I over-indulged in feng shui
4. I over-indulged in the positive effects of QE3.
5. I thought I would never lose with buy blue chips and hold.
Do I cut loss now? As I have maintained, it is too late now. I can only get out at the next bull run, say one, two or even three years from now, or the next rebound, which hopefully occurs soon so as to release some of my funds.
Other than that, I am actually pretty excited as stock prices get cheaper everyday, as it means I can add more stocks at the prices I could only salivate over just a couple of months ago. Will slowly accumulate as the bear market progresses.
My 2010 Performance(unrealised): -50%
1. I did not pay attention to the technicals
2. I over-indulged in bullish analyst reports
3. I over-indulged in feng shui
4. I over-indulged in the positive effects of QE3.
5. I thought I would never lose with buy blue chips and hold.
Do I cut loss now? As I have maintained, it is too late now. I can only get out at the next bull run, say one, two or even three years from now, or the next rebound, which hopefully occurs soon so as to release some of my funds.
Other than that, I am actually pretty excited as stock prices get cheaper everyday, as it means I can add more stocks at the prices I could only salivate over just a couple of months ago. Will slowly accumulate as the bear market progresses.
My 2010 Performance(unrealised): -50%
Saturday, September 24, 2011
I am acknowledging that clearly, a bear market has arrived.
I remember on July 18, I wrote the article "Like it or not, Singapore shares have entered bear market". But the ironic episode was that I didn't follow my own counsel, and continued to invest, hoping for a final QE3.
Now, the bear market is clearly here. How do I tell? In May 2010, the STI fell below 200-Day MA, but climbed back above it within days. In March 2011, the STI again fell below the 200 MA, but then again, climbed back quickly above it too. In June 2011, the STI fell below 200D MA, but this time round hardly sustained its climb above it. It fell below the 200D MA line again on 3 Aug 2011, and this time round, there is no turning back. I am accepting the STI is not going to recover above the 200D MA anyime soon. Therefore, my admission that a bear market has arrived.
How long then, do bear markets last? Bear markets tend to be short in duration. According to my own research on data since 1946, bear markets can be as short as 45 days to as long as 694 days. They seldom last more than two years. An average bear market lasts about 1 year. Therefore, based on this assumption, the 2011 market should then bottom out by middle next year. So until then, my policy is to short the rallies, and "it is not time yet to buy".
Now, the bear market is clearly here. How do I tell? In May 2010, the STI fell below 200-Day MA, but climbed back above it within days. In March 2011, the STI again fell below the 200 MA, but then again, climbed back quickly above it too. In June 2011, the STI fell below 200D MA, but this time round hardly sustained its climb above it. It fell below the 200D MA line again on 3 Aug 2011, and this time round, there is no turning back. I am accepting the STI is not going to recover above the 200D MA anyime soon. Therefore, my admission that a bear market has arrived.
How long then, do bear markets last? Bear markets tend to be short in duration. According to my own research on data since 1946, bear markets can be as short as 45 days to as long as 694 days. They seldom last more than two years. An average bear market lasts about 1 year. Therefore, based on this assumption, the 2011 market should then bottom out by middle next year. So until then, my policy is to short the rallies, and "it is not time yet to buy".
Thursday, September 22, 2011
QE3 is a disappointment, and stock markets tank instead
To be honest, I am hoping for QE3 to save me from my trapped long positions, but it has instead caused me to lose even more. Now, I have to act quickly.
I have been waiting for the all-important 21 Sep Bernanake speech to lift markets, but it is all a wait in vain. The bear market, which started last month, continued to charge forward, leaving my portfolio in tatters. I have to make some key decisions.
Now, of course, all markets go through bull and bear, and the bull will eventually return, if I hold long enough. Therefore, the counters in my long term portfolio, I will not touch. Instead, I will be adding as markets dip further and further.
The counters that I trade with leverage, I will be making major adjustments. I am going to trim these positions (albeit too late), but the bear market is still young, and there would be more downside to come. Next,I will look to short those rallies. Eyeing Hang Seng.
Most importantly, not to lose my cool and my capital, and in a few months' time, slowly buy into a market (this time without leverage)as I believe it would be the great great sale that I have been preparing for.
I have been waiting for the all-important 21 Sep Bernanake speech to lift markets, but it is all a wait in vain. The bear market, which started last month, continued to charge forward, leaving my portfolio in tatters. I have to make some key decisions.
Now, of course, all markets go through bull and bear, and the bull will eventually return, if I hold long enough. Therefore, the counters in my long term portfolio, I will not touch. Instead, I will be adding as markets dip further and further.
The counters that I trade with leverage, I will be making major adjustments. I am going to trim these positions (albeit too late), but the bear market is still young, and there would be more downside to come. Next,I will look to short those rallies. Eyeing Hang Seng.
Most importantly, not to lose my cool and my capital, and in a few months' time, slowly buy into a market (this time without leverage)as I believe it would be the great great sale that I have been preparing for.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Stocks valuations are attractive, but does it mean we buy with both hands?
Credit Suisse' report on 13 Sep listed 5 stocks as near 2008-9 P/B lows. These are SingTel, Capitaland, Olam, ComfortDelgro and SMRT. Do I rush headlong in? I don't think so.
Why? Because it is my personal belief that the stock market has begun a bear phase. Such phases last a while, and I am prepared to see the stock markets fall even further before venturing into it. Any rallies between now and then will be for unwinding, rather that adding positions.
Why? Because it is my personal belief that the stock market has begun a bear phase. Such phases last a while, and I am prepared to see the stock markets fall even further before venturing into it. Any rallies between now and then will be for unwinding, rather that adding positions.
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