Sunday, May 10, 2020

Will this pan out?


Will a possible Aug crash predicted by this model trigger the next global stock crisis?



Saturday, May 9, 2020

ECM


According to Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model, the end for stock market bull run is coming.




Other notable events:
- a commodity bull market is being formed and will run into 2024
- demise of the West  (but not so soon, in 2032)
- rise of China (further out in 2037)

Monday, May 4, 2020

A Major Bull Run is Forming in Oil Markets


Came across this article.

Seems coherent with my current belief that oil markets are bottoming.

Read that there will be a commodity bull market which will last until 2024.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Major-Bull-Run-Is-Forming-In-Oil-Markets.html

Sunday, August 12, 2018

Market Volatility? Let it be

Carmen Lee, head of OCBC Research, has rightly pointed out that at current price levels, we should be contrarians and be cherry-picking quality stocks that are set to benefit from mega trends such as artificial intelligence, e-commerce, mobile payments and biotechnology, etc. Some of these are:


Price as at 10 Aug 2018
Target Price
Capitaland
3.39
4.09
DBS
25.59
31.83
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
2.26
2.49
Frasers Logistics
1.05
1.18
Keppel Corp
6.72
8.70
Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust
1.14
1.42
ST Engineering
3.39
3.90
Singtel
3.14
4.08
UOB
28
32.09
UOL
7.03
8.48
Venture
17.94
23.23

With the recent softness in the market, the PB ratio of the STI has come off to around 1.1 times book value or more down one standard deviation below the historical average. In the past 10 years, the
PB ratio has fallen at least 1.5 standard deviations below the historical average on only two occasions - during the global financial crisis and the yuan devaluation in 2016. On both occasions, the market rebounded after a couple of months.
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/market-volatility-let-it-be