Which China stock should I buy?

I think it's better to buy some for keeps now. China is cheap. Period.

This is a list of stocks I have narrowed down:

Stock	Price(HK$)	P/E	P/B	Technicals	Uptrend?
China Citic Bank	4.57	5.22	1	50% retracement	Yes
China Construction Bank	5.96	7.2	1.5	50% retracement	Yes
CNOOC	15.60	8	2.15	50% retracement	Yes
China Overseas Land	15.90	8.6	1.85	Little retracement	Yes
Dongfeng  Motors	13.90	9.2	2.1	50% retracement	Yes
Guangzhou R & F	10.10	5.5	1.17	Little retracement	Yes
Industrial & Commercial Bank	5.01	6.9	1.5	50% retracement	Yes
Yanlord	S$1.24	8.15	0.82	50% retracement	Yes

(Source: Bloomberg)

All are on newly established uptrends since January, and most are sitting nicely on 50% support
(the golden number). In addition, all have attractive PE ratio of below 10 and one (Yanlord) even below its book value. So, what am I waiting for?

My choice candidate: Yanlord (it has the bonus appeal of having Peter Lim on board).

China is attractive now - but is it time to buy yet?

The Shanghai market is looking REALLY attractive.

I mean, there is that little more downside that it can go, that's that. But problem is, global markets are starting to weaken. This should limit any rebound that the Shanghai market could have. So, until global stock markets fully correct, I will not be pressing the buy button yet. But I am watching closely.

Why I remain bullish

Here are the reasons why I do not see a market top yet:

• Valuations remain compelling
• Retail investors have yet to enter the market in full force
• Bull markets in emerging economies last 69 months and up 423% on average and bear markets there average 14 months and down 57% (Mark Mobius)

However, in the very short term (next few weeks or months), I see more consolidation in the markets, especially since markets have made such a big run since Decmber 2011. But, any dips will present opportunities to buy stocks at more attractive levels.

1Q Report Card

Due to a stronger than expected stock market in the 1st Q, I have managed to salvage my portfolio from underperformance. The breakdown:

Stock	Bought	Sold	Gain/ (Loss)
ICBC	4.22	5.47	+29%
Anhui	24.80	28.00	+13%
Sembcorp	4.85	5.11	+5%
Yanzhou	19.50	19.50	0%( but lose on commissions)
Russell	828	828	0%( but lose on commission)
Noble	1.15	-	Still holding
NOL	1.84	-	Still holding
Wilmar	5.10	-	Still holding

I continue to be of the opinion that stock markets around the world will go on to new highs (in fact Dow Jones is already on its way to breaking its 2007 high), before any major market plunge.

Hence, I will still be making use of dips in the market to add to my portfolio. Hopefully, the traditional May-Jun market lull period can provide me with attractive entry levels to purchase stocks.

Should I short the markets?

No doubt, the stock markets have been on an uptrend.

BUT, the broad market has rallied for an unbelievable 3 straight months without pause.

Although April is traditonally a good month for stocks, the months that follow, May and June are not. This is the time to consider shorting. Since it is the small caps that get sold off first, shorting the Russell 2000 is the natural choice. It is at resistance now.

Slowly placing my bets on the short side.

Update: I have decided against  shorting after noticing supports of key indices and blue chips are holding steadfastly. Will look to long instead.

I wait till money is ready to be picked up

STI 2,932.0159.79  

I am glad that I have sold just before this correction... now I wait for the correction to unfold itself. It should be a shallow one, since I do not think this rally is over yet.

I have picked up Wilmar as its share price sold down recently. I will accummulate more if necessary.

On my watchlist:
Broadway
CapMalls Asia
Capitaland
China MinZhong
Noble
STX OSV
Sands China
SembCorp
SembMar
Yangzijiang


Jim Rogers: I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up.

Outperformers will remain that - outperformers

I have closed out my positions in Sembcorp Ind and ICBC, but they have continued running up. I am once again, too early to take profit on my outperfoming stocks. Hence, it is necessary to formulate a set of rules to prevent this from happening again.

Buy Rules
#1  Buy only blue chip or very strong stocks
#2  Buy only when stock is below 200-day EMA (yes, contrary to popular trading rules!)
#3  Buy slowly, in stages

Sell Rules
#1 Sell underperformers early
#2 Sell outperformers only after selling underperformers